Alors que les troupes américaines préparent leur retrait d’Iraq en 2011, les puissances du Moyen-Orient craignent l’établissement d’un axe Irak-Iran grâce à la prédominance shiite des deux pays.
Au même moment, l’Iran et l’Arabie Saoudite s’affrontent pour influer sur le résultat des élections parlementaires iraquiennes qui auront lieu en 2010. Cette tension entre les deux pays s’est manifestée lors de la récente crise au Yemen, rappelant les conflits par pays interposés pendant la Guerre Froide.
Iran might take the leading role in post-occupation Iraq, this as Iraq’s demographics are predominantly represented by Shi’a Islam.
fill the vacuum of power created in the Middle East.
(SOFA) in 2003, as they persuaded the Iraqi government “that a SOFA, even with a timetable, would stifle Iraqi sovereignty further”. As this strategy implies, Iran is waiting for the American pull-out to regain its influence over the Shi’a Muslim majority in Iraq.
For whom the bells will toll in 2010’s parliamentary election
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against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a rebel group seeking the creation of an independent Kurdish State. Turkey and the Iraqi-Shiite majority share a common interest in limiting the special status that Kurds have gained recently in Iraq.
an autonomous district for Shi'ites in southern Iraq”, this giving Iraqi-Shi’ites the exclusive exploitation of Iraq’s second biggest oil-reserves. If this becomes a reality, Sunni-Iraqi’s will be left enclosed in center Iraq, where no oil can be exploited.
could easily escalate into an Arab-Kurd civil war.
The Yemen connection
financed Sunni militias in Iraq to destabilize the majority Shi’a government, which shares strong ties with Iran.
Flickr
Yemen crisis erupted just before the Iraqi parliamentary elections of 2010. As Saudi Arabia has backed occidental efforts against Iranian influence in the Middle East, this particularly in Afghanistan and Iraq, it comes as no surprise that Iran is retorting against Saudi Arabia where it hurts the most: The stability of the al-Saud Monarchy.
School of Economic Warfare
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